The genetic progress in the Latxa breed (Black-Faced and Blond-Faced strains) was estimated using (1) BLUP evaluations and (2) an analysis of the selection pathways in the scheme followed by a theoretical estimation of genetic gains assuming a simplified scheme. Later, both estimations were compared. BLUP estimated genetic progresses were 2.97 and 2.95 l/year in Black-Faced and Blond-Faced respectively, and the theoretical ones were 2.69 and 2.85 l/year for the same strains. The most important genetic gains were obtained in the female-male and male-male selection path ways, where greater selection intensity and evaluation accuracy can be achieved. It is concluded that the efficiency of the program is good and that only a strong change in its structure could achieve a much higher genetic progress. Furthermore, the simplified scheme has shown to be a good predictor of the genetic gains.