The reform of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the common organisation of the market (COM) in milk and milk products only partially solves the situation of Spanish quota insufficiency. Tensions are certain to happen as 850,000‑900,000 tons of milk without quota are in the market. The agents of milk system (production and industrial milk treatment and processing) are resistant to the quota regime discipline and many work as if the present circumstances could not be modified.
Such a long time until the beginning of the reform in 2005 let many incidences happen, but it helps to change the productive and industry structures and to progress in convergence towards EU‑15. It has to be taken advantage of this period to increase competitiveness.
It is useful to consider over the COM modifications and its calendar specifications carefully to know what they imply (it seems to be neither too much nor certain), as in 2003 they will be revised to let the present contingentation be over after 2006. Another reason is that the Berlin deal on the Agenda 2000 will have to be again taken into consideration around 2003 or 2004, perhaps 2002.
The expectations point to a continuing adjust of civilian work population and structural changes in milk production. But it is difficult to forecast how this process would stop and how many dairy herds there would be left. If the situation keeps on as in 2000, it might be expected that for 2005 there no more than 25,000 herds would be left in Spain. Producers who have under 50,000 kilograms of quota will probably retire from work and/or stop milk production.